2019 Predictions, How Did We Do?
- AI Background Removal in Photoshop (Jeff). I think Adobe is going to buy and integrate background erasing that uses artificial intelligence into Photoshop. Click one button and your raw file is sent up to the cloud, analyzed by the AI, and returns a new layer in Photoshop with a layer mask that extracts the subject from the background.
- Partially true. There is a simple “remove background” button in Photoshop 2020 that does try to remove the background automatically. I have found it to be buggy and crash Photoshop, but when it doesn’t crash Photoshop. It isn’t the AI I was thinking it would be where it sent your photo up to the cloud but it is automated.
- Canon 7DM3 Released With Significantly Better Dynamic Range (Jeff): OK, so maybe this is more of a plea to Canon to do this. Already seeing rumors of the 7DM3 coming in early 2019 and I only really care about one thing in the release. If they do this one thing I will be buying the camera. It absolutely has to have better dynamic range.
I don’t care if the megapixels go up. I don’t care if the focus system is improved, though I would love to get a few more focus points on the top and bottom. I don’t care if the frame rate goes up (it just can’t go down). I don’t even care if the ISO performance improves (though I would take it). It has to have even better dynamic range than the 80D.
If the dynamic range is no better than the 80D, I won’t buy it. If they release a 7DM3 with better dynamic range than the 80D then I will be buying a new camera for the first time in 4 years. I think they are going to do that. I also really wish it would have an R mount and be mirrorless, but I don’t think it will be.
- WRONG. No 7DM3. Instead they kind of did a hybrid release of what might have been the 7DM3 and continuing the line of the 80D with the 90D. I was very tempted to upgrade my 80D to the 90D with the increase in dynamic range, megapixels, and frame rate but I didn’t get a new camera in 2019.
- Canon Releases 5DM5 As Their Last DSLR (Jeff). There are also rumors of a 5DM5 release from Canon in 2019. I think they will do that and that this will be the very last full frame DSLR that Canon produces. Mirrorless with the RF mount is the future for Canon. They will up the megapixel count and up the dynamic range in the sensor significantly.
- WRONG. RF mount is the future with Canon. We saw a budget full frame mirrorless, the EOS RP, released in 2019. The 90D. Also the EOS M6M2 crop sensor mirrorless. They also announced the EOS-1DXM3 is going to be released in early 2020. No 5DM5.
- Canon and Nikon Release Full Frame Mirrorless with Dual Card Slots (Jeff):I think that both Canon and NIkon will refresh their full frame mirrorless bodies in 2019 and this time they will include dual card slots. The focus systems will be vastly improved and the frame rates will be
- WRONG. Neither Canon nor Nikon released a full frame mirrorless body that had dual memory card slots. Ugh. Though Canon did announce that the 1DXM3 will have dual CFExpress card slots.
- Pentax will release a 645z replacement that is mirrorless (Brent). Fuji and Hasselblad are the only two options for MF mirrorless. Though it’s almost a joke as it’s not true MF. Anyway, I really like the Fuji and have really liked the Pentax 645 as well. But it’s too big. This is where mirrorless can absolutely be a size and weight savings over standard MF cameras.
- WRONG. To be honest, I don’t follow the Pentax world at all so I had to look up what happened here. What happened was nothing in 2019. Ricoh did announce a new camera coming in 2020, but it is an APS-C DSLR and won’t be mirrorless.
- Sigma will announce FF Foveon Camera for L mount (Brent). I love the idea of the Foveon Sensor, but it’s always been crop size and suffered in dynamic range. It never caught on. But with the new L mount alliance there’s a chance it can work. Keeping my fingers crossed.
- SO CLOSE. A FF Foveon L-Mount camera was announced by Sigma and originally planned for release in 2019, but it was announced as being delayed to 2020 back in March of 2019.
- I think there will be a significant shift towards Godox and Flashpoint systems in 2019 for flash AND strobe users. (Connor) There is a very real chance I will switch to flashpoint over the course of the next year myself. I still love paul buff lighting, but more and more it seems that flashpoint is working hard to be the more practical option for affordable strobes.
- RIGHT. I switched to Godox, though that started back in 2018 I changed my recommendation on inexpensive lighting gear over to Godox on 2019. Our Facebook group has been filled with people recommending, switching, and starting out with Godox gear throughout 2019.
- Lightroom will remain unappealing as a raw processing program (to me) (Connor) (brent laughs)
- Connor was right. Lightroom still has absolutely no appeal to him
- I will continue to say “I’m considering a switch to Fuji” throughout the year (Brent). In reality, I’m keeping my eye on pentax and the new L mount alliance. I like the idea of Panasonic getting into FF as well as Sigma getting back in the camera body game. It will be an interesting year for sure! I’ll probably not upgrade anything until the dust has settled. The next EOS-R FF will be interesting to see as well. 2020 is an open book for my next camera acquisition.
- WRONG. Brent gave Fuji a pretty solid try, but didn’t switch.
- Nick – Sony releases the A7iv – I think this camera will be a minor update from the riii, mostly ergonomic, with some minor tweaks in the internals. Same sensor, better view finder, bigger grip, better eye and animal AF. After the massive success of the a7iii.. The A7iv will be a little lackluster, but a decent camera.
- Nick – Canon releases EOS Rii – I think this camera will be a big update from the original.. But still lacking in a few areas. Two card slots… stilllllll the same sensor, but stabilized. Better autofocus, but crippled video specs.
- Connor – Canon’s mirrorless systems will become appealing enough for many users to consider them as the new predominant canon camera. I’m still going to be shooting on my 6D’s this next year, however, if they completely fail on me I may go mirrorless (either Sony or canon)
- Jeff – Canon releases a mirrorless crop body that Jeff wants to buy but doesn’t. 2020 is the year I think I finally need to upgrade my camera body. I think Canon is going to release a few mirrorless bodies in 2020 and one will be their first crop sensor mirrorless body. I think it will have great dynamic range, plenty of megapixels, and mostly be exactly what he wants in an upgrade but will lack in something critical like frame rate that prevents him from going there. Honestly, I have my eye on the 5DM4 right now because the price difference between it and the 90D isn’t very much and I have about half the Amazon points to get there right now.
- Nick – 2020 is the year we see movement away from Lightroom – I think all those that are unhappy with the adobe subscription model will finally embrace another editing and cataloging sweet. Capture one pro 20. I personally don’t care for the program when compared to photoshop and lightroom combined, but lightroom only users, especially sony and fuji shooters, will be enticed into the embrace of Capture one for its raw conversion science, and full licensing model (Connor agrees with this)
- Jeff – The media will continue to talk about how much they hate Lightroom but Adobe as a company will have their best year yet. Lightroom seems to be the favorite punching bag of most mainstream photography media, yet 2019 Adobe made more money than they ever have. Adobe has released its Q4 financial results for the 2019 fiscal year, revealing that it has surpassed $11 billion in annual revenue for the first time in the company’s history, and posting an incredible 24% growth year-over-year.
- Jeff – Adobe adds a feature in Lightroom in 2020 that everyone agrees they didn’t see coming and was compelling. I racked my brain trying to think what the feature might be and can’t really think of something specific. Maybe far better spot removal, vastly improved noise reduction, or maybe much better auto selection kinds of tools. There will be something that is big in Lightroom in 2020 and it is going to be fun to talk about it in the predictions show in December 2020.
- Brian – I SUCK AT PREDICTION STUFF! I predict that I will continue to be a creature of habit and keep using Lightroom and the same Canon gear I already have. I’ve invested so much and it all does what I need and people still pay me!
- Brian – Insta360 One X – capturing photos type concept
- Connor – THIS year will be the year I switch to godox systems myself.
Nick: Colorado Tripod company tripods ($300)
Brian: PeakDesign Travel Duffel 35L ($130)
- Facebook group is Master Photography Podcast
- Instagram account for the show is @masterphotographypodcast
- Find Jeff’s work at https://www.jsharmonphotos.com. Check out his Photo Taco podcast over at https://phototacopodcast.com where you can search all kinds of topics and find shows discussing the details. He is on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/harmon.jeff, Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/harmonjeff/ (@harmonjeff), and Twitter: https://twitter.com/harmon_jeff (@harmon_jeff)
- Find Nick at Nickpagephotography.com youtube – /nickpagephotography IG @nickpagephogoraphy
- Find Brian’s work at brianmcguckin.com and on Facebook search for brianmcguckinphotography, Instagram @brianmcguckin, Twitter @brianmcguckin.